GRANDparents vs GRANDchildren. The World’s Shrinking Baby Population

This article originally appeared on the BBC World Service.

For the first time in history, there are more elderly people in the world than young children, according to the United Nations.

Their figures show that the number of over-65s surpassed that of under-fives at the end of 2018.

There are now around 705 million people over-65 on the planet, while those aged 0-4 number about 680 million.

Widening gap

Current trends point to a growing disparity between the oldest and the youngest by 2050 – there will be more than two over-65s for each person aged 0-4.

This widening gap symbolises a trend that demographers have been tracking for decades: in most countries we are all living longer and not making enough babies.

But how will this affect you? Could it already be doing so?

Not enough ‘arrivals’

Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, says: “There will be very few children and lots of people over the age of 65 and that makes it very difficult to sustain global society.”

There will be very few children and lots of people over the age of 65 and that makes it very difficult to sustain global society – Christopher Murray

Murray is also the author of a 2018 paper in which he suggested that almost half of all countries in the world are facing a “baby bust” – meaning that there are insufficient children there to maintain population size.

“Think of all the profound social and economic consequences for a society with more grandparents than grandchildren,” he adds.

In 1960, the world’s fertility rate was almost five children per woman, according to the World Bank.

Almost 60 years later it has halved to only 2.4.

At the same time, socio-economic advances have benefited those who come into this world. In 1960 people lived on average a little over 52 years; the current life expectancy reached 72 years in 2017.

That means we are all living longer and demanding more and more resources as we get older, increasing pressure in areas such as pensions and health systems.

Elderly populations

The ageing population problem is sharper in developed countries. They tend to have lower birth rates for a number of reasons mostly linked to economic affluence – child mortality rates are lower, birth control is easily accessible and raising children can be relatively expensive.

In those nations, women often have children later in life, and so have fewer children.

Japan’s life expectancy is nearly 84 years, the highest of any nation (Credit: Getty Images)

Better standards of life mean people “last longer” in these countries. A prime example is Japan, where life expectancy at birth is nearly 84 years (the world’s highest national rate) and where the over-65s amounted to 27% of the total population in 2018 – also the most in the world.

Its under-five population share? Around 3.85%, according to the UN.

This double challenge has been worrying Japanese authorities for decades, and last year the government announced a compulsory rise in the retirement age from 65 to 70 years.

If and when implemented, workers in Japan are set to retire later than anywhere else in the world.

But imbalanced populations are also threatening developing countries. China has a much lower share of over-65s (10.6% of the population) than Japan, but thanks to the strict birth-planning programmes enforced since the 1970s, the world’s second biggest economy also has a comparatively low fertility rate – 1.6 births per woman.

Under-fives in mainland China are now less than 6% of the total population.

Quantity of children versus quality of life

African countries are the best example of a quantity versus quality dilemma in terms of birth rates: they dominate the rankings for high fertility.

Niger, for instance, is the world’s “most fertile country”, with 7.2 births per woman in 2017.

However, the same nations have high child mortality – Niger has a rate of 85 children per 1,000 live births, one of the highest in the world.

Africa dominates rankings for high fertility – Niger, for example, has 7.2 births per woman (Credit: Getty Images)

Replacement rate

For population purposes, 2.1 is the magic number. It is the fertility rate that demographers say is necessary for populations to replace themselves.

However, the most recent UN data shows that only a little over half of the world’s countries procreate at that pace – 113.

Researchers also point out that countries with higher child-mortality and lower life expectancy need a 2.3 fertility rate, a threshold currently reached by only 99 nations.

Because of dwindling births, many countries are likely to see their populations shrink significantly, despite the overall global population increase – we are expected to reach the eight billion mark by 2024.

One of the most extreme cases is Russia: the fertility rate of 1.75 child per woman is expected to contribute to a steep drop in the number of Russians in the next few decades.

The UN Population Division has calculated that the Russian population will decline from the current 143 million people to 132 million by 2050.